Cubs' pitching desperation could lead them to Pirates' constant headache

DAMAKORONKOWA - The Chicago Cubs' rotation situation heading into 2027 is so dire that just about everything should and likely will be on the table. They need to add a top-of-the-rotation type arm, even if it's not Tarik Skubal, but they also require at least two other options after that to make up for their losses in free agency and general uncertainty. Chances are they'll bring back at least one arm from the group of Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Matthew Boyd, and more, but Jed Hoyer has to get creative to ensure the team has enough to compete next year.

Complicating matters is the pending lockout. Activity is likely to speed up quickly this offseason as teams and players look to get deals hashed out before the December 1 deadline. More targets might go off the board early if other organizations decide to get aggressive. Last time, the Cubs understood the assignment and pushed to get Marcus Stroman, but they'll have to get comfortable with potentially offering a bit more to secure their preferred targets or risk missing out this time.

If things don't go exactly as planned, the good news is this offseason is rich with options not just in free agency, but on the trade market. Reid Detmers or one of the young Mariners starters stand out as some of the Cubs' best options to re-explore after expressing interest at the trade deadline. One other interesting name that makes natural sense, even if he's not the most exciting, would require them to take advantage of a contentious situation within the division — Pirates swingman Carmen Mlodzinski.

The righty recently appeared at #30 on MLB Trade Rumors' top 40 trade candidates for the upcoming season and for good reason. Earlier this year, Mlodzinski was at the center of some drama in Pittsburgh after Jared Jones' return from UCL surgery booted him to the bullpen. He made his frustration at not being able to start known to the point that he was briefly placed on the restricted list. Cooler heads prevailed, and he reaffirmed his commitment to the Pirates, but the fact that there was friction at all makes one wonder if he'll be on the move to somewhere with an open slot for him.

Pittsburgh will still have a full rotation next year, with Jones, Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft, and Mitch Keller all returning, plenty of depth, and top prospect Seth Hernandez on the rise. They may find the best value for Mlodzinski will be as a trade chip given that he's overperformed that swingman role. While not as successful as his fellow Pirates' first-round picks, he's shown promise in his young career so far, posting a 3.53 ERA and 3.58 FIP with a fastball hovering around 95-96 mph on average. Any acquiring team would also have him under control through 2029.

Carmen Mlodzinski is an imperfect, but interesting fit for the Cubs rotation

The rub, of course, is that Mlodzinski's time in the rotation has been fleeting. He's only topped out at 12 starts in a year, with 2026 marking a high for the 27-year-old at 123 innings. Despite solid results this past season, including a 3.95 ERA and 3.75 FIP, the underlying numbers are concerning, too. His expected ERA sat at a much worse 4.89, while his expected batting average against was .280. That can be tied to a first-percentile hard-hit rate of 46.5% (!) and an average exit velocity of 90.7 mph.

Although his fastball would be an improvement on the Cubs' relative lack of stuff, he won't bring more whiffs. Mlodzinski struck out a career-low 18.1% of batters he faced this year, and his career rate isn't much better at 20.2%. His groundball rate is solid, though, and he has gotten decent results on his sweeper and splitter, so there may be tools in his seven-pitch arsenal to tinker with.

The Cubs could do far worse than acquiring Mlodzinski if it comes down to that. Pittsburgh isn't likely to demand a king's ransom for him either, so if the front office does spy some untapped potential that can be developed in a full-time role, he makes sense. So long as they also add some real certainty in the rotation, there's room to take a shot on someone who hasn't had a proper big-league opportunity as a starter.

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