What are Trump’s options for securing the Strait of Hormuz?

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1. Trump has vowed to reopen a vital oil-shipping lane that has been closed off by Iran. It won’t be easy.

The U.S. is holding off on sending warships into the narrow Strait of Hormuz to escort commercial vessels, with Navy officers saying Iranian drones and antiship missiles could turn the area into a “kill box” for American sailors. One option to clear the way would be a more-intense use of air power to hunt and destroy Iranian missiles and drones before they could be fired at ships. Another would be to use ground troops to seize the territory around the waterway. Our visual guide shows how Iran is holding the strait hostage. President Trump knew this was a risk, and still went to war, WSJ reporting shows. You can follow our live coverage of the conflict here.

2. Iranians were promised regime change. Many of them feel betrayed.

They are grappling with the possibility that the war will end with them living under the same authoritarian rule and crushing international sanctions, but in devastated cities with an aggrieved government that has vowed to take an even harder line against dissent. It’s shaping up to be the second time this year they have seen the U.S. retreat on promises of regime change.

3. In a GOP stronghold, anxiety over the war is already on the ballot.

Two weeks into the conflict, more than a dozen interviews with voters in Erlanger, Ky., revealed fears over the potential for another elongated U.S. war to distract from domestic concerns. The state’s May 19 primary could serve as a window into not only Republican views of the economy and the strength of Trump’s endorsement of a challenger, but also the president’s decision to intervene in the Middle East.

4. Red and blue states are growing further apart on income tax.

GOP-led states are looking to entice new residents with lower taxes, while Democratic-led states want to tax top earners more to shore up budgets and social services. As Democrats and Republicans run in different directions, they are accusing each other of irresponsibility.

5. Crime in the U.S. is way down.

The homicide rate fell last year to at least a 125-year low, based on projected final-year data. Theories to explain the historic drop range from an influx of federal funding to stepped-up police enforcement, along with longer-term societal shifts, like reduced alcohol consumption and increased time spent alone.

The Number

The flat fee that Tomi Mikula, 33, charges car buyers to negotiate on their behalf. After spending more than a decade selling cars and auto financing at dealerships, he now uses his experience to try to talk down the sticker prices. Some dealers hate him enough that they won’t take his calls. Others relish the chance to go toe-to-toe with a dealmaking foe.

Spotlight

In the months before Trump moved to capture Nicolás Maduro, the CIA turned to an old friend for advice on who should replace the Venezuelan leader.

Ali Moshiri, a former executive at Chevron, told the CIA that if the U.S. tried to oust Maduro’s entire regime and install the democratic opposition, it would create another morass like Iraq. Moshiri’s hand in U.S. spycraft, revealed by WSJ for the first time, shows how Trump embraced the energy industry’s playbook for dealing with autocratic regimes—and marked a dramatic turnaround in Chevron’s prospects in Venezuela. Chevron said it had no advance knowledge of the ouster, and didn’t coordinate or advocate for it. Moshiri declined to discuss any CIA contact; an agency spokeswoman disputed WSJ’s reporting. A White House spokeswoman said Chevron played no role in the Maduro operation.

Catch Up

Financier Who Offered ‘Guaranteed’ High Yields Pleads Guilty to Fraud (Read)White House Puts RFK Jr.’s HHS on Tighter Leash After MAHA Setbacks (Read)Why Did Trump Order an Attack on Iran’s Kharg Island? (Read)China Resumes Military Flights Around Taiwan After Sudden 10-Day Hiatus (Read)🎧 Why a Closed Strait of Hormuz Is a ‘Smoking Risk’ for Global Markets (Listen)

Quoted

Weekend Reads

Review: Does the $599 MacBook Neo Fit in Your Life? (Read)Things I Wish I’d Known Before Buying an EV (Read)CEOs Want to Be Like Warren Buffett, Right Down to His Shareholder Letter (Read)

Take a Break

Welcome to the “Hunger Games” of parenting: summer camp sign-up. Parents book spots while boarding planes, hiding in the bushes at parties and on the way to funerals.

Beyond the Newsroom

WSJ | Buy Side: G.H.Bass Weejuns have been around since the 1800s, and they’re still a wardrobe staple.

Today’s newsletter was curated by Cristina Roca in London.

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