Page tops Berger after counties canvass. Recount likely in key NC Senate race
County election officials on Friday signed-off on ballot totals that, if certified at a later date, could seal one of the most unexpected political upsets in North Carolina history.
Elections leaders in Rockingham and Guilford counties, which state Senate leader Phil Berger has represented for more than two decades, approved election results showing Berger trailing Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page by 23 votes in the district’s GOP primary. The close margin — less than 1 percentage point — allows Berger to request a recount by noon Tuesday.
As Berger considers that option, North Carolinians have time to brace for what his loss could mean for state politics.
“It would be an earthquake of epic proportions,” said Chris Cooper, a Western Carolina University.
“It’s not just that Phil Berger lost, it’s what it means for a whole group of people who make their living on their associations with him,” Cooper added.
The result of the election meetings in Rockingham and Guilford counties on Friday was not unexpected. Page led Berger by two votes on election night. The margin grew to 23 votes after provisional ballots were counted last week. Prior to Friday’s meeting, local officials said the number of ballots from overseas and military voters wouldn’t make a difference in the final outcome — and they did not.
What is surprising, Cooper said, is that a legislative leader who for years appeared to be the strongest politician in the state capitol would be viewed as so replaceable by the voters of his home county. Berger’s legislative track record has helped him win 13 elections in a row by double-digit margins — and a few without any opposition.
Berger became the Senate president pro tempore in 2011 when Republicans took control of the legislature for the first time in a century. He has stayed in the leadership position through several governors and House speakers — pushing through laws that cut taxes, slash regulations, limit abortions, loosen gun restrictions and more.
Because of the GOP’s years-long majority in the General Assembly, anyone who wanted a bill approved by the legislature had to go through the state Senator from Eden. And Berger used that influence to steer millions of dollars in state funding to his small, rural county of almost 100,000 people.
It’s unlikely that Page will be able to immediately deliver in the same way, especially if other incumbent Republicans keep their senate seats. Senate Republicans who are loyal to Berger probably won’t elect Page as the chamber’s next leader.
Yet, after all of the ballots were counted Friday, Page had twice as many votes as Berger in Rockingham County: 9,065 to 4,526. The race is close because Berger made up a large portion of the difference in Guilford County.
“There’s no personal scandal that we’re aware of,” Cooper said. “He’s not accused of any crime. There is no major scandal that swept him out of office.”
What likely doomed Berger, Cooper said, was the senate leader’s unpopular effort to boost tax revenues in Rockingham County. Page, who was first elected sheriff in 1998, sought to convince voters that Berger had lost touch with the needs of his district — pointing to the senate leader’s consideration of a casino in Rockingham County in 2023.
Casinos are only allowed on tribal lands in North Carolina. Berger at the time supported a proposal to allow for casinos outside tribal lands in an effort to keep North Carolina gamblers — and the tax dollars they generate — from leaving the state for a new casino across the Rockingham County line in Danville, Virginia.
Some residents spoke out against the idea and took issue with stakeholders making preparations without first seeking public input. Rockingham commissioners rezoned a 192-acre plot to potentially allow a casino in anticipation of a potential change in state law.
Page accused Berger of seeking deals behind closed doors without regard for local opinion — a claim Berger has disputed. Berger said he listened to public input, as evidenced by his decision to abandon the idea. And he accused Page of changing his position on the project for political gain.
In the early stages of casino discussions, Berger said he called Page to get his opinion of the proposal. According to Berger, Page didn’t have a problem with the idea at the time but wanted to make sure the county had enough law enforcement to support it. “Next thing I heard from him, I understood he was going to rallies in opposition to it,” Berger told WRAL last year.
Still, Berger’s attempts to repair his image in Rockingham County fell short. President Donald Trump in December endorsed Berger in the race, citing his accomplishments as senate leader. But in doing so, Trump described Page as a longtime supporter and “outstanding” person. Trump called on Page to drop out of the race and instead work for his administration in Washington.
Doug Heye, a longtime GOP strategist and North Carolina native, said voters sent a message to Berger that their needs are more important than any endorsement.
“Regardless of the ultimate result, politicians in their party’s leadership need to remember their district always comes first,” Heye said. “Incumbency brings benefits, but it’s not a guarantee, especially when voters are angry.”
Page echoed that sentiment while speaking to reporters outside of the Rockingham County Board of Elections office in Reidsville on Friday.
“We've just kind of flipped the script here,” Page told reporters. “We always hear the most money raised wins elections, but I just showed it doesn't. It's relationships and trust in the people that you work for — your citizens.”
What comes next
A Berger spokesman on Friday said he anticipates the Senate leader will request a machine recount “at minimum,” adding that no decision has been made.
A recount would likely take weeks or even longer if there are legal challenges over ballots or voter eligibility. Berger and Page have already begun legal funds — and Page is publicly airing his fear that Berger allies will interfere in the recount process.
A recount would be overseen by county and state elections officials appointed and overseen by Republican State Auditor Dave Boliek, who endorsed Berger in the race and campaigned with him last month.
Berger played an influential role in passing the law that moved oversight of the state’s elections from the state’s Democratic governor to the Republican auditor. And Boliek has leaned on Berger’s bench to staff his office: Boliek’s chief of staff was previously a top lawyer for Berger at the legislature, and Boliek’s spokesperson is Berger’s former spokesperson.
Page has called on Boliek to recuse himself from a possible recount — a move Boliek has said is unnecessary because he doesn’t have any role in the vote-tallying process.
“There's nothing to recuse myself from,” Boliek told WRAL this week. “The process is clear, and in fact, the process did not involve the governor previously making any decisions [about election outcomes]. And it does not involve the auditor making any decisions. Those decisions are made by the appointed board.”
Page on Friday doubled down on his call for Boliek to distance himself from the process. He noted that Boliek appointed former State Elections Board member Bob Rucho, who resigned last week amid questions into his impartiality. In recent months, Rucho praised Berger on social media and bashed Page.
“I'm not saying he's done anything wrong,” Page said of Boliek. “But the point about it is: the air of impropriety will always be there.”
Through a spokesman, Boliek said he stands by his statement on Monday: he’s not involved in the recount process and therefore doesn’t need to recuse himself.
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