Dow Jones futures tumble; oil surges above $100, but off extremes as G-7 mulls crude reserves release
Dow Jones futures fell sharply early Monday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, but well off overnight lows. Crude oil futures surged above $100 a barrel, but far below Sunday night peaks, as the Group of Seven nations mull releasing strategic reserves.
Tehran rejected calls for a cease-fire while President Donald Trump insisted the Iran war is very popular with his base. Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the recently killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to be the new supreme leader.
The stock market fell solidly to sharply last week as the Iran war sent oil prices skyrocketing. All the key indexes are below their 50-day moving averages. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 haven't undercut Tuesday's lows, so their rally attempts are ongoing.
Palantir TechnologiesPLTR, BroadcomAVGO, HCA HealthcareHCA, General DynamicsGD and NvidiaNVDA partner VertivVRT are stocks to watch.
But investors should be extremely cautious in the current environment.
Vertiv, EchostarSATS and fiber-optic plays LumentumLITE and CoherentCOHR will join the S&P 500 before the open on March 23, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced late Friday. Coherent edged lower but the other three stocks rose modestly.
Nvidia stock is on Leaderboard. Vertiv stock, Lumentum and Palantir are on the IBD 50. Vertiv and Palantir stock are on IBD Sector Leaders.
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Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures fell 1% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures declined 0.9% and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.9%. All were more down more than 2% overnight.
U.S. crude oil futures rocketed 11% to above $100 a barrel after nearing $120 Sunday night. That's after last week's record 36% spike. Saudi Arabia has started to cut oil production as storage fills up, following several other Gulf producers. Full shutdowns loom unless Persian Gulf shipments resume relatively soon. A full restart would take weeks.
Group of Seven nations will discuss a joint release of crude oil reserves today, which is likely why oil futures came off extreme overnight levels.
President Trump posted Sunday night on Truth Social that a short-term spike in oil prices is a "very small price to pay" to eliminate Iran as a nuclear threat.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose a few basis points to 4.17%.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
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Iran War News
Neither Iran nor President Trump signaled an off-ramp for the fighting. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected calls for a cease-fire on Sunday, saying on NBC's "Meet The Press" that Iran will keep fighting without a "permanent" peace.
President Trump told ABC News that the Iran war is "more popular than ever" with his base. "It's a very MAGA thing what we're doing. A very very MAGA thing."
Meanwhile, Iran's Assembly of Experts picked Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, state media said, succeeding his father. He's seen another hardliner with close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Earlier Sunday, Trump said that if he didn't approve of the new leader, "he's not going to last long."
Iran continued missile attacks on Israel and the United Arab Emirates on Sunday, with the UAE also facing more than 100 drones. Israel attacked Iranian oil depots and other energy infrastructure.
Trump is mulling deploying special forces on the ground to seize Iran's uranium.
Here's Your Battleplan As Iran War Tests Investors
Stock Market
The stock market had a volatile losing week as the Iran war sent oil and natural gas prices soaring, raising global economic fears. The Dow Jones and small-cap Russell 2000 were the biggest losers.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 3% in last week's stock market trading, its worst week in 11 months and the lowest level since late November. The small-cap Russell 2000 plunged 2.33% to a two-month low.
The S&P 500 index gave up 2% and the Nasdaq composite 1.2%, with Friday's close the lowest of 2026. The Nasdaq led a late afternoon slide Friday on a Bloomberg report that OracleORCL and OpenAI scrapped plans to expand an AI data center in Texas amid financing woes. That hit AI hardware plays, including Nvidia, as well as private credit firms.
The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETFRSP slumped 3.3%, closing below its 50-day line for the first time since late November.
The Direxion Nasdaq-100 Equal Weighted ETFQQQE sank 1.9%, also below its 50-day.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still above Tuesday's intraday lows. A follow-through day is possible at any time.
The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, shot up on Friday to just above its October and November 2025 peaks, but still well below the April 2025 high.
Airlines were big losers from disrupted flights and surging fuel costs. Metals, consumer staples, drug giants and transports that had held up tumbled by the end of the week.
Defense and energy stocks were generally winners. The big sector winner was software, continuing to rebound on mostly positive earnings reports and as AI disruption fears recede.
The 10-year Treasury yield leapt 17 basis points to 4.13%, even with the yield reversing slightly lower on Friday.
Crude Oil Prices Soar
U.S. crude oil futures spiked 35.6% to $90.90 a barrel, a record weekly gain going back to 1983. It's the highest settlement since September 2023. U.S. natural gas futures swelled 11.4%, but European natural gas prices skyrocketed 67%.
U.S. gasoline futures jumped 20.2%, with prices at the pump sure to surge in the next few weeks.
Tanker traffic has essentially halted through the Strait of Hormuz for fear of Iran attacks.
Five Stocks Near Buy Points Amid Iran Sell-Off
Stocks To Watch
Palantir stock surged 15.6% to 157.16 last week, but closed just below its 50-day line after hitting resistance at its 200-day. The AI data analytics firm with significant Pentagon exposure is benefiting from a software rebound and strength in defense plays. A decisive move above the 200-day could offer an aggressive entry, but investors may want to wait for a longer pause or handle above that level.
General Dynamics stock gained 1.8% to 363.49 last week. Shares are working on a 369.70 flat-base buy point, with Wednesday's high of 366.75 as a slightly early entry. The relative strength line is at a new high.
HCA stock is holding in a buy range from a cup base with a 520 entry, up 0.6% to 532.81. The hospital operator also has a four-weeks-tight base with a 552.90 buy point.
Broadcom stock popped 3.4% to 330.45 last week, rebounding above its 200-day following strong earnings and guidance but hitting resistance at the 50-day line on Friday. The custom AI chipmaker has a 414.61 consolidation buy point, according to MarketSurge.
Vertiv stock fell 5.1% to 241.78 last week, but held above its 21-day. VRT stock jumped late Friday on the S&P 500 news. There's no obvious entry but the AI infrastructure firm, an Nvidia partner, is showing strength, at least for now.
As for Nvidia stock itself, the AI chip giant fell 3% to 177.89 on Friday but eked out a 0.4% weekly gain. It's trading above the 200-day line but below its 50-day.
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What To Do Now
The silver lining with the stock market generally weak is that few buying opportunities are around to lure investors in.
If there's a follow-through day, investors should tiptoe in, awaiting further confirmation, especially given the dearth of quality setups.
If oil prices continue to surge, stocks could break decisively lower.
Investors should stay engaged and prepared, working on watchlists for the next bull market.
Oracle and AdobeADBE lead notable earnings this week as software tries to keep rebounding. Oracle results and guidance also will be key for the AI buildout trade.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on X at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
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